Creating pro forma financial statements involves forecasting your company's financial future through a systematic process that combines historical data, market research, and reasonable assumptions to project income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements.
Introduction
Whether you're planning a business expansion, preparing for a funding round, or evaluating a potential acquisition, pro forma financial statements provide the roadmap for your financial future. While the process might seem intimidating, breaking it down into manageable steps makes it accessible even if you're not a financial expert.
This comprehensive guide walks you through the complete process of creating professional quality pro forma financial statements that will help you make better business decisions and impress stakeholders. We'll cover each step in detail, from gathering preliminary data to finalizing your projections, with practical examples and expert tips along the way.
Prerequisites: What You'll Need
Before diving into the creation process, gather these essential resources:
Historical financial statements(if available):
- Income statements
- Balance sheets
- Cash flow statements
Business plan elements:
- Sales and marketing strategies
- Operational plans
- Capital expenditure requirements
- Staffing projections
Market research:
- Industry growth rates
- Competitor analysis
- Market trends
Tools:
- Spreadsheet software (Excel, Google Sheets)
- Financial planning templates (optional)
- Accounting software reports (optional)
With these resources at hand, you're ready to begin creating your pro forma financial statements.
Looking for help with your financial planning? Our network of experienced accountants can provide the guidance you need to create effective pro forma financial statements tailored to your business.
Step 1: Define Your Objectives and Timeframe
Every pro forma projection starts with clear objectives. Your goals will shape the entire process, from the level of detail to the time horizon.
Common Objectives for Pro Forma Statements
- Business planning: Internal guidance for management decisions
- Loan applications: Demonstrating repayment capacity to lenders
- Investor presentations: Showing growth potential and use of funds
- Acquisition analysis: Evaluating financial impacts of a potential purchase
- Strategic shifts: Assessing the impact of new products or market entries
Selecting the Right Timeframe
Most pro forma statements follow these timeframes:
- Short-term projections(1 year): Monthly or quarterly detail
- Medium-term projections(2-3 years): Quarterly or annual detail
- Long-term projections(3-5+ years): Annual detail
Example: Setting Objectives
For a retail business seeking expansion funding, appropriate objectives might include:
- Demonstrate profitability of new location within 18 months
- Show overall business growth of 50% within 3 years
- Illustrate cash flow needs during expansion phase
- Project return on investment for potential funders
The appropriate timeframe would be monthly projections for the first year, quarterly for year two, and annual for years three through five.
Step 2: Gather and Analyze Historical Data
Your historical performance provides the foundation for credible projections. This step is crucial for established businesses but can be adapted for startups using industry benchmarks.
Financial History Analysis
Collect 2-3 years of financial statementsif available
Calculate key metrics and ratios:
- Gross margin percentage
- Operating expense ratios
- Growth rates by revenue stream
- Working capital requirements
- Fixed vs. variable costs
Identify trends and patterns:
- Seasonal fluctuations
- Year-over-year growth
- Changing cost structures
- Profit margin evolution
For Startups Without History
Research industry benchmarks:
- Industry association reports
- Small business development resources
- Comparable company information
Network with similar businesses:
- Join industry groups
- Consult with mentors
- Engage with accelerators or incubators
Develop realistic starting assumptions:
- Conservative sales ramp-up periods
- Higher-than-average initial expenses
- Longer cash conversion cycles
Example: Historical Analysis for a Service Business
A marketing agency might analyze its historical data and find:
- 15% average annual revenue growth
- 60% gross margin consistently maintained
- Salaries running at 45% of revenue
- Rent and utilities stable at 8% of revenue
- Marketing costs at 5% of revenue
- Seasonal dips in Q1 and Q3
These patterns become the baseline for projections, adjusted for known future changes.
Step 3: Develop Key Assumptions
Pro forma projections are only as good as their underlying assumptions. This step requires careful consideration of both internal factors and external market conditions.
Revenue Assumptions
- Growth rates by product/service line
- Price changes and their timing
- New product/service introductions
- Customer retention rates
- Seasonal fluctuations
Cost and Expense Assumptions
- Cost of goods sold as percentage of revenue
- Fixed vs. variable expenses
- Salary increases and new hires
- Rent and facilities costs
- Marketing expenditures
- Research and development
Capital and Financing Assumptions
- Capital expenditure requirements
- Depreciation schedules
- Debt repayment terms
- Equity investments
- Dividend or distribution policies
Operational Assumptions
- Inventory turnover rates
- Accounts receivable collection periods
- Accounts payable payment terms
- Production capacity constraints
- Staffing requirements
External Factor Assumptions
- Industry growth trends
- Competitive landscape changes
- Regulatory impacts
- Economic conditions
- Supply chain considerations
Example: Key Assumptions for a Manufacturing Business
A furniture manufacturer might establish these assumptions:
- Revenue growth: 12% Year 1, 15% Year 2, 10% Year 3
- Material costs: 40% of revenue
- Labor costs: 25% of revenue with 3% annual increases
- New equipment purchase: $250,000 in Year 1
- Equipment depreciation: 7-year straight-line
- Collection period: 45 days
- Inventory turnover: 6 times per year
- New product line launch: Q3 of Year 1
Documenting assumptions thoroughly helps you explain your projections to stakeholders and makes it easier to update forecasts as conditions change.
Step 4: Create Your Pro Forma Income Statement
The income statement (profit and loss statement) is typically the first pro forma statement to create because it drives many elements of the other statements.
Step-by-Step Process
Project revenuefor each period:
- Start with baseline revenue
- Apply growth assumptions
- Adjust for seasonality
- Add new product/service revenues
Calculate cost of goods sold:
- Apply COGS percentages to revenue
- Adjust for anticipated changes in costs
- Factor in economies of scale
Calculate gross profit:
- Revenue minus COGS
- Track gross margin percentages
Project operating expenses:
- Apply percentages for variable expenses
- Project fixed costs independently
- Add one-time expenses
- Plan for step changes (e.g., new hires, facilities)
Calculate EBITDA(Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization)
Project depreciation and amortization:
- Existing assets
- New capital expenditures
Calculate operating income(EBITDA minus depreciation and amortization)
Project interest expense and income:
- Existing debt obligations
- New financing
- Investment returns
Calculate pre-tax income
Estimate income taxes:
- Apply appropriate tax rates
- Account for credits and deductions
Calculate net income
Example: Simplified Pro Forma Income Statement
For a software company projecting 3 years:
PRO FORMA INCOME STATEMENT
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Revenue $1,000,000 $1,400,000 $1,960,000
Cost of Revenue $200,000 $280,000 $392,000
Gross Profit $800,000 $1,120,000 $1,568,000
Gross Margin 80% 80% 80%
Operating Expenses
Salaries & Benefits $450,000 $600,000 $800,000
Marketing $100,000 $140,000 $196,000
Rent $60,000 $60,000 $90,000
Utilities $24,000 $26,000 $30,000
Insurance $18,000 $20,000 $22,000
Other Expenses $48,000 $60,000 $80,000
Total Operating Exp. $700,000 $906,000 $1,218,000
EBITDA $100,000 $214,000 $350,000
Depreciation $20,000 $35,000 $45,000
Operating Income $80,000 $179,000 $305,000
Interest Expense $15,000 $12,000 $8,000
Pre-Tax Income $65,000 $167,000 $297,000
Income Taxes $13,000 $33,400 $59,400
Net Income $52,000 $133,600 $237,600
Step 5: Develop Your Pro Forma Balance Sheet
The balance sheet projects your company's future financial position, showing assets, liabilities, and equity at specific future dates.
Step-by-Step Process
Start with your current balance sheet(or opening balances for new businesses)
Project assets:
- Cash: Link to ending cash from pro forma cash flow statement
- Accounts receivable: Based on revenue and collection period assumptions
- Inventory: Based on COGS and inventory turnover assumptions
- Prepaid expenses: Project based on historical patterns or business plan
- Fixed assets: Add capital expenditures and subtract depreciation
- Intangible assets: Account for acquisitions, development costs, and amortization
Project liabilities:
- Accounts payable: Based on COGS/expenses and payment terms
- Accrued expenses: Project based on operating costs
- Short-term debt: Schedule current portions of long-term debt
- Long-term debt: Reflect principal payments and new borrowing
- Other liabilities: Project based on business plans
Project equity:
- Paid-in capital: Add planned equity investments
- Retained earnings: Add net income, subtract distributions/dividends
- Treasury stock: Account for share repurchases if applicable
- Other equity accounts: Project based on specific plans
Balance check: Ensure total assets equal total liabilities plus equity for each period
Example: Simplified Pro Forma Balance Sheet
For the same software company:
PRO FORMA BALANCE SHEET
Start Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
ASSETS
Current Assets
Cash $100,000 $125,000 $240,000 $450,000
Accounts Receivable $70,000 $82,000 $115,000 $162,000
Prepaid Expenses $12,000 $15,000 $18,000 $22,000
Total Current Assets $182,000 $222,000 $373,000 $634,000
Fixed Assets
Equipment & Furniture $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000
Less: Accum. Depr. ($50,000) ($70,000) ($105,000) ($150,000)
Net Fixed Assets $150,000 $180,000 $195,000 $200,000
Other Assets $25,000 $23,000 $20,000 $18,000
TOTAL ASSETS $357,000 $425,000 $588,000 $852,000
LIABILITIES & EQUITY
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable $30,000 $35,000 $46,000 $62,000
Accrued Expenses $15,000 $18,000 $24,000 $32,000
Current Debt $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000
Total Current Liab. $70,000 $83,000 $105,000 $134,000
Long-Term Debt $150,000 $120,000 $85,000 $45,000
Total Liabilities $220,000 $203,000 $190,000 $179,000
Equity
Paid-in Capital $100,000 $125,000 $150,000 $150,000
Retained Earnings $37,000 $97,000 $248,000 $523,000
Total Equity $137,000 $222,000 $398,000 $673,000
TOTAL LIABILITIES
& EQUITY $357,000 $425,000 $588,000 $852,000
Step 6: Create Your Pro Forma Cash Flow Statement
The cash flow statement is critical for identifying potential cash shortfalls and ensuring your business maintains adequate liquidity.
Step-by-Step Process
Start with net incomefrom your pro forma income statement
Adjust for non-cash items:
- Add back depreciation and amortization
- Add back other non-cash expenses
- Subtract non-cash income
Calculate changes in working capital:
- Increase in accounts receivable (negative cash impact)
- Decrease in accounts receivable (positive cash impact)
- Increase in inventory (negative cash impact)
- Decrease in inventory (positive cash impact)
- Increase in accounts payable (positive cash impact)
- Decrease in accounts payable (negative cash impact)
- Changes in other current assets and liabilities
Calculate cash flow from operations
Project investing activities:
- Capital expenditures (negative cash impact)
- Asset sales (positive cash impact)
- Acquisitions (negative cash impact)
- Other investing activities
Project financing activities:
- Debt proceeds (positive cash impact)
- Debt repayments (negative cash impact)
- Equity investments (positive cash impact)
- Dividend/distribution payments (negative cash impact)
- Other financing activities
Calculate net change in cash
Determine ending cash balancefor each period:
- Beginning cash balance + Net change in cash
Example: Simplified Pro Forma Cash Flow Statement
For the same software company:
PRO FORMA CASH FLOW STATEMENT
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
OPERATING ACTIVITIES
Net Income $52,000 $133,600 $237,600
Adjustments
Depreciation $20,000 $35,000 $45,000
Changes in Working Capital
Accounts Receivable ($12,000) ($33,000) ($47,000)
Prepaid Expenses ($3,000) ($3,000) ($4,000)
Accounts Payable $5,000 $11,000 $16,000
Accrued Expenses $3,000 $6,000 $8,000
Net Cash from Operations $65,000 $149,600 $255,600
INVESTING ACTIVITIES
Capital Expenditures ($50,000) ($50,000) ($50,000)
Other Investing $2,000 $3,000 $2,000
Net Cash from Investing ($48,000) ($47,000) ($48,000)
FINANCING ACTIVITIES
Debt Proceeds $0 $0 $0
Debt Repayments ($25,000) ($30,000) ($35,000)
Equity Investment $25,000 $25,000 $0
Dividends ($7,000) ($17,600) ($27,600)
Net Cash from Financing $8,000 ($34,600) ($62,600)
Net Change in Cash $25,000 $115,000 $145,000
Beginning Cash Balance $100,000 $125,000 $240,000
Ending Cash Balance $125,000 $240,000 $450,000
Step 7: Check for Internal Consistency
Pro forma statements must be internally consistent. Each statement connects to the others in specific ways, and errors in one flow through to the others.
Key Consistency Checks
Income Statement to Balance Sheet:
- Net income should flow to retained earnings (minus distributions)
- Revenue and collection period should align with accounts receivable
- COGS and payment terms should align with accounts payable
Income Statement to Cash Flow Statement:
- Net income is the starting point for cash flow from operations
- Depreciation in the income statement should match the add-back in cash flow
Balance Sheet to Cash Flow Statement:
- Changes in balance sheet accounts should be reflected in cash flow
- Ending cash on the balance sheet must equal the cash flow statement's ending balance
- Capital expenditures in cash flow should match changes in fixed assets plus depreciation
Internal Balance Sheet Checks:
- Total assets must equal total liabilities plus equity
- Individual account balances should make logical sense
Common Inconsistency Issues
- Cash flow disconnects: Ending cash doesn't match the balance sheet
- Retained earnings mismatches: Not properly flowing net income less distributions
- Working capital disconnects: Changes in receivables, inventory, or payables not matching operations
- Fixed asset inconsistencies: Capital expenditures not properly reflected
- Debt misalignments: Debt balances not reflecting payments and new borrowings
Use cross-checks and formulas to ensure your three statements maintain their logical relationships throughout the projection period.
Step 8: Perform Sensitivity Analysis
No projection is certain. Sensitivity analysis helps you understand how changes in key assumptions affect your financial projections.
Approaches to Sensitivity Analysis
Scenario analysis: Create different versions of your projections:
- Base case: Your most likely scenario
- Optimistic case: Better-than-expected performance
- Conservative case: Worse-than-expected performance
Variable testing: Adjust one variable at a time to see the impact:
- Revenue growth rates
- Gross margin percentages
- Operating expense levels
- Collection periods
- Inventory turnover
Monte Carlo simulation: For advanced analysis, use software to run hundreds or thousands of scenarios with random variations within defined ranges.
Key Variables to Test
- Revenue growth: Try ±25% of your base assumption
- Gross margin: Test variations of 2-5 percentage points
- Operating expenses: Try ±10% of your base assumption
- Collection period: Test extending by 15-30 days
- Capital needs: Test 25% higher investment requirements
Example: Sensitivity Analysis Results
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS - NET INCOME
Scenario Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Base Case $52,000 $133,600 $237,600
Revenue -10% $32,000 $93,600 $162,600
Revenue +10% $72,000 $173,600 $312,600
COGS +5% $37,000 $113,600 $207,600
OpEx +10% $30,000 $102,200 $191,800
This analysis shows how vulnerable profits are to changes in key variables, helping you identify which factors need the closest management attention.
Step 9: Review and Refine
Before finalizing your pro forma statements, conduct a thorough review looking for errors, inconsistencies, and opportunities for improvement.
Review Checklist
- Verify formulas and linkagesbetween statements
- Compare key ratiosto industry benchmarks
- Check for unrealistic projections:
- Unusually high growth rates
- Margins exceeding industry norms
- Dramatic efficiency improvements
- Unsustainable cash flow patterns
- Review assumptionsfor reasonableness and documentation
- Confirm mathematical accuracy
- Check for formatting and presentation issues
Common Refinements
- Add explanatory notesfor significant changes or unusual items
- Smooth out unrealistic fluctuations
- Incorporate feedbackfrom team members and advisors
- Add visual elementslike charts and graphs
- Prepare supplementary schedulesfor complex items
Example: Ratio Analysis Review
RATIO ANALYSIS
Industry Avg Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Gross Margin 76% 80% 80% 80%
Operating Margin 12% 8% 13% 16%
Net Profit Margin 9% 5% 10% 12%
Current Ratio 1.8 2.7 3.6 4.7
Debt-to-Equity 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3
This analysis shows that while gross margin exceeds the industry average (potentially requiring explanation), other profitability measures start below industry norms but improve over time. The liquidity and leverage ratios show a company becoming increasingly financially stable.
Step 10: Present Your Pro Forma Statements Effectively
The presentation of your pro forma statements is as important as their content, especially if they'll be shared with external stakeholders.
Presentation Elements
- Executive summary: Highlight key projections and assumptions
- Complete set of statements: Income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement
- Key assumptions page: Document all significant assumptions
- Sensitivity analysis: Show alternative scenarios
- Charts and graphs: Visualize important trends
- Ratio analysis: Compare key metrics to industry standards
- Notes and explanations: Clarify unusual items or methodologies
Presentation Tips
- Keep it clean and professional: Use consistent formatting and clear labels
- Use monthly detail for the near term: Show the first year by month, then quarterly or annually for later years
- Provide context: Compare projections to historical performance when available
- Be transparent about assumptions: Never hide or obscure the bases for your projections
- Prepare to explain variances: Be ready to discuss differences from industry norms or past performance
- Include a narrative: Accompany statements with written explanation of key points
Tools and Resources for Creating Pro Forma Statements
Spreadsheet Templates
The most flexible approach is to use a spreadsheet application like Excel or Google Sheets. Many templates are available that provide the basic structure for pro forma statements:
- Financial planning templates from accounting associations
- Small business development center resources
- Online financial planning sites
Specialized Software
For more complex businesses or advanced financial modeling:
- Financial planning software: Adaptive Planning, Prophix, Anaplan
- Accounting software with forecasting modules: QuickBooks, Xero, NetSuite
- Dedicated financial modeling applications: Finmark, PlanGuru, Brixx
Professional Assistance
Sometimes the best approach is to engage professional help:
- Accountants: For technical accounting accuracy
- Financial advisors: For realistic assumptions and industry insights
- Business consultants: For strategic alignment
Our network ofqualified accountantsandfinancial advisorscan provide expert guidance tailored to your specific business needs.
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate do pro forma statements need to be?
Pro forma statements are projections, not guarantees. The goal is reasonableness, not perfect accuracy. Most businesses consider projections successful if they're within 20% of actual results in year one, with wider acceptable variances in later years. The real value often comes from the planning process itself, not just the final numbers.
What's the most common mistake in creating pro forma statements?
Overoptimism, especially regarding revenue growth and the timing of that growth. Most businesses experience slower sales ramp-ups and higher initial costs than they project. Conservative revenue projections paired with slightly higher-than-expected expenses often produce more realistic results.
How do I handle uncertainty in my projections?
Use scenario planning and sensitivity analysis to show ranges of potential outcomes rather than single-point estimates. Document your key risk factors and how you've accounted for them. Consider providing probability weightings for different scenarios if appropriate for your audience.
How often should I update my pro forma statements?
For active businesses, quarterly updates are typical, comparing actual results to projections and adjusting future periods accordingly. For startups or businesses in rapidly changing environments, monthly updates may be appropriate. At minimum, conduct a full refresh annually during your business planning cycle.
What level of detail should I include in my pro forma statements?
The appropriate level of detail depends on your audience and purpose:
- Internal planning: More detail is better
- Lender presentations: Moderate detail with clear assumptions
- Investor pitches: Focus on key drivers and milestones
- Strategic planning: Emphasize relevant segments and decision points
Conclusion
Creating pro forma financial statements is both an art and a science. The technical aspects of financial projections must be balanced with business judgment and realistic assumptions about the future.
By following this step-by-step guide, you can develop pro forma statements that serve as valuable tools for planning, fundraising, and strategic decision-making. Remember that the process is iterative—your projections will evolve as your business grows and market conditions change.
The most valuable pro forma statements aren't necessarily those that predict the future with perfect accuracy (which is impossible), but those that help you understand the key drivers of your business, anticipate potential challenges, and prepare for various scenarios.
Need help creating professional pro forma financial statements for your business?Connect with experienced accounting professionalswho can guide you through the process and help you develop projections that inform better business decisions.
Author: Kimi, Co-founder of Sam's List
Kimi writes about what she's learning while building Sam's List and shares honest takeaways from her conversations with accountants and financial advisors across the country. None of this is financial advice—just the stuff most people wish someone told them sooner.
